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Inflation is never a surprise

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Something for nothing is not an allowed process in nature. The misguided shutdowns in 2021 exacerbated by “helicopter-money” created out of nothing surely has consequences.


Printing fiat currency (black) printing rate has always preceded jumps in inflation (red). Subsequently, the sudden reversal has caused businesses to become pessimistic and cut back (as indicated by PMI). The PMI (blue below) in turn precedes actual inflation (as measured by the CPI; red above, yellow below) by 90 days.


Based on this past behavior, barring other surprises, the CPI should be down to about 4% by January-February 2023.