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The performance of midterm election years vs all others over the last 85 years produces an expected pattern that so far matches this year.


Since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has never recorded a negative return in the 12- month period following a midterm election. In fact, the average 15% return is more than double the typical 12-month rolling return for the index across all other periods. At the same time the volatility as measured by the standard deviation of daily returns for each individual month is 30-50% higher than the non-midterm years.

S&P Index price return one year after a U.S. midterm election. Source: The Capital Group, op. cit.