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Recession in 18 mo’s?

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22-Sep’22: RECESSION IN 2023Q4? The 2y-10y Treasury Curve has inverted to a notable -51bp. Historically the spread never remains negative for long, and expecting the inevitable reversion to normal, VALUE Equities and FIXED INCOME are advisable, just as soon the curve is about to head back up. The central banks have stopped printing fiat currencies for a long time to come. This means VALUE has value and speculative “fluff” is, well, fluff. We reiterate, there will be a roller coaster market, range-bound for a solid couple of years. Fade the tops with options. Keep dry powder to accumulate after larger drops. And while waiting for a recession, the above curve says short the 10y and buy about five times of 2y. For practical purposes, since the official measure of a recession is quite laggard, we may well be at the actual start of it in 22Q4. Historically, stock markets have done well during the actual recession periods.