value v growth disparity at record levels
Value stocks are at their lowest valuations and allocations in >20 years (posted 2023-08-17)
gold will take a breather
But the marathon is far from over. There is a very strong correlation between the price of gold and the “real” (corrected for inflation) Fed-Funds Rate (RFFR). (posted 2023-08-17)
However, only movements into and within RFFR<0 seems to have a say over gold prices. Gold will go higher only inflation stays high OR if FF is cut (enough for RFFR<0 again), i.e. a good recession/stagflation. This scenario is moderately plausible, but a short term and sizable drop in gold cannot be avoided. we sold a considerable amount of covered calls on gold near the peak late last month, but the drop will probably dwarf that.
Source: https://ingoldwetrust.report/gold-charts/?lang=en