Perhaps the most famous (if also useful) quip attributed Warren Buffet is “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”. Using leverage in the form of margin-debt is the degree of that nakedness. It appears… Read More »Where Are The Naked Swimmers?
As if the world needed more evidence that young will cut their nose despite their face every time until they’ve been around the block a few times. Alas, the requisite number of runs around the proverbial block seems to be… Read More »Let the young dudes carry the bags
Where do you go to fine respite in uncertain times? Value (and stores of value). Yes utilities, copper-mining and government-bonds are not-sexy investments, but they will rule for the next decade. In the above graph, inflation is represented by the… Read More »Boring is the new black
Something for nothing is not an allowed process in nature. The misguided shutdowns in 2021 exacerbated by “helicopter-money” created out of nothing surely has consequences. Printing fiat currency (black) printing rate has always preceded jumps in inflation (red). Subsequently, the… Read More »Inflation is never a surprise
Although growing neurons in an artificial environment to observe their network formation is over two decades old, for the first time they have been observed to be trainable to play a “high-level” game; Pong! Pong (being the very first popular… Read More »The Dishbrain
The performance of midterm election years vs all others over the last 85 years produces an expected pattern that so far matches this year. Since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has never recorded a negative return in the 12- month… Read More »buy the vote
22-Sep’22: RECESSION IN 2023Q4? The 2y-10y Treasury Curve has inverted to a notable -51bp. Historically the spread never remains negative for long, and expecting the inevitable reversion to normal, VALUE Equities and FIXED INCOME are advisable, just as soon the… Read More »Recession in 18 mo’s?
14-Sep’22, Pessimism Rules the day: Pessimism has practical implications, as asset managers are heavily underweight equities. As growth improves and inflation falls, this can lead to sharp rebounds in equities. Only the Fed can spoil the party. The allocation of… Read More »Fear rules the day